Lessons from the North: What Seattle's 2026 Forecast Means for San Diego Real Estate

As we look ahead to the 2026 real estate market, it is always wise to keep an eye on our West Coast neighbors. A recent article in the Seattle Times, "Five projections for Seattle’s real estate market in 2026," offers a fascinating glimpse into a market that shares many similarities with our own here in San Diego. From the tech-driven economy to the challenges of affordability, the trends in Seattle can provide valuable lessons and insights for San Diego buyers, sellers, and investors.

The Seattle forecast predicts a market of moderation and normalization. Home prices are expected to remain largely flat, with some economists even predicting no price growth at all in the Puget Sound region. This is a significant shift from the frenzied appreciation of the past few years. At the same time, home sales are projected to pick up, with one economist forecasting a 4.7% increase in sales for the region. This combination of flat prices and rising sales suggests a market that is swinging toward a more balanced state, offering a bit of relief for buyers who have been sidelined by intense competition.

One of the most interesting parallels for San Diego is the prediction that mortgage rates will hover around 6% in 2026. While many have been hoping for a return to the ultra-low rates of the past, the consensus among economists is that 6% is the new normal. This is a critical piece of information for anyone planning to buy or sell in the coming year. It means that affordability will continue to be a major factor, and buyers will need to be realistic about their purchasing power. It also means that sellers will need to be strategic in their pricing to attract this more budget-conscious buyer pool.

So, what are the key takeaways for the San Diego market?

For Buyers: The Seattle forecast suggests that patience may be rewarded. If San Diego follows a similar path, we could see a more balanced market in the spring, with more inventory to choose from and less upward pressure on prices. The advice from the north is clear: get your finances in order, get pre-approved for a mortgage, and be ready to act when the right opportunity arises. But do not expect a major price drop. The name of the game in 2026 will be finding a home that fits your budget in a market that is more stable, but still competitive.

For Sellers: The key to success in the coming year will be strategic timing and presentation. The Seattle experts advise waiting until the spring to list your home to take advantage of the expected surge in buyers. When you do list, it will be more important than ever to have your home in top condition. In a more balanced market, buyers have more choices, and they will gravitate toward homes that are well-maintained, updated, and priced competitively. The days of simply putting a sign in the yard and watching the offers roll in are behind us. A thoughtful and strategic approach will be required to achieve the best results.

The overarching theme from the Seattle forecast is one of a market that is returning to a more sustainable and predictable rhythm. The wild swings of the past few years are giving way to a more mature and balanced market. This is a positive development for both buyers and sellers, as it allows for more thoughtful and strategic decision-making. As we move into 2026, we will be watching these trends closely to provide you with the most up-to-date and insightful advice for navigating the San Diego real estate market. Visit our website to learn more about how we can help you achieve your real estate goals in the coming year.

This blog post is an analysis of the article "Five projections for Seattle’s real estate market in 2026" published by The Seattle Times.