A Glimmer of Hope: What the Latest California Sales Data Means for San Diego

For months, the real estate headlines have been dominated by talk of a market slowdown. But the latest report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) for September 2025 offers a welcome glimmer of hope and a more nuanced look at the state of our market. The report, titled "September home sales and price report," reveals that after five consecutive months of declines, home sales in California actually bounced back in September, rising on both a monthly and a yearly basis. For buyers and sellers in San Diego, this report provides valuable insights into the current market dynamics and a roadmap for navigating the months ahead.

Let's dive into the numbers. Statewide, existing single family home sales were up 6.6 percent from September of last year. Here in Southern California, the increase was even more pronounced, with sales jumping an impressive 11.3 percent. This is a significant development, as it suggests that buyers are beginning to adjust to the new reality of higher mortgage rates. As C.A.R. President Heather Ozur noted in the report, with mortgage rates stabilizing in the low 6 percent range, some sidelined buyers are finding the confidence to re-enter the market.

Prices are also showing signs of stability. The statewide median home price of $883,640 was up 1.8 percent from a year ago. While this is a far cry from the double digit price growth we saw during the pandemic, it is a clear indication that the market is not in a freefall. In fact, the report shows that the Southern California region saw a 2.3 percent year over year price gain. This resilience is particularly noteworthy given the affordability challenges facing our state. It speaks to the strong underlying demand for housing in desirable areas like San Diego.

However, the report also paints a picture of a market that is still finding its balance. While sales are up, they remain below the long term average. The Unsold Inventory Index, which measures how long it would take to sell the current supply of homes on the market, was 3.6 months in September. This is considered a balanced market, a significant shift from the intense seller's market of the past few years. Homes are also taking longer to sell, with the median time on market at 32 days, up from 24 days a year ago. And the sales to list price ratio has dipped to 98.2 percent, meaning that on average, homes are selling for slightly below their asking price.

So, what are the key takeaways for San Diego buyers and sellers?

For Sellers: The increase in sales and the stability of prices are encouraging signs. There are still plenty of serious buyers in the market. However, the days of simply putting a sign in the yard and watching the offers roll in are over. With more inventory and longer market times, it is crucial to have a strategic approach. This means pricing your home competitively, ensuring it is in pristine condition, and working with an agent who can create a powerful marketing plan to make your property stand out. The good news is that with the right strategy, you can still achieve a very successful sale.

For Buyers: This is the most balanced market we have seen in years, and that is a major advantage for you. You have more homes to choose from, more time to make a decision, and more negotiating power. The fact that homes are, on average, selling for slightly below asking price means you have an opportunity to get a good deal. However, it is important to remember that this is still a competitive market. The best homes will still sell quickly. The key is to be prepared. Get pre approved for a loan, know what you want, and be ready to make a strong offer when you find the right property.

The latest C.A.R. report confirms what we have been seeing on the ground here in San Diego: a market that is normalizing. It is not a crash, but a correction. It is a return to a more sustainable pace, which is ultimately healthier for everyone. The road ahead may still have some bumps, as C.A.R. Chief Economist Jordan Levine noted that broader economic uncertainty could keep the recovery gradual. But for now, the data offers a clear message of cautious optimism. If you are thinking of buying or selling in this evolving market, we are here to provide the expert guidance you need. Visit our website to learn more about how we can help you achieve your real estate goals.

This blog post is an analysis of the "September home sales and price report" published by the California Association of Realtors.